Most bad beats are two-player stories. This one is unusual because two players took a beat in the same hand: pocket kings lost the main pot and pocket queens lost the side pot, both to pocket jacks that were the clear underdog when the chips went in.

The setup

It was Day 8 of the 2023 Main Event, with blinds of 400,000 and 800,000 and an 800,000 big-blind ante. Joshua Payne raised to 1.6 million. Jose Aguilera three-bet to 4.5 million. Daniel Weinman, on the button, went into the tank and then moved all in for 29.1 million.

Payne called all in for 19.6 million total, and Aguilera, who had both players covered, called as well. The hands:

  • Payne: K♠ K♦
  • Aguilera: Q♠ Q♣
  • Weinman: J♠ J♣

From the reported stacks, all three players put 19.6 million into a main pot, and Weinman and Aguilera each put another 9.5 million into a side pot. By our arithmetic that is about 77.8 million chips from the three players, plus the blinds and ante.

Street by street

  • Preflop. Three pairs, all blocking each other's suits. By our estimate, kings were about 67% to win the main pot, queens about 18% and jacks about 15%. In the side pot, queens against jacks alone, queens were about 83%.
  • Flop: A♥ 7♥ 4♠. The ace changed nothing in the ranking, and with one fewer chance for the lower pairs to improve, kings went to about 83% for the main pot. Queens and jacks were each about 8–9%. In the side pot, queens were about 92%.
  • Turn: J♥. Weinman made a set. Kings and queens were each left with two outs to a bigger set: about 5% each for the main pot, with jacks about 90%.
  • River: 3♠. No help for either bigger pair. Weinman won both pots. Payne was eliminated in 14th place for $430,200, and Aguilera was left short; he later finished 10th.

The odds at each point

  • Preflop, main pot: kings about 67%, queens about 18%, jacks about 15%.
  • Flop, main pot: kings about 83%, queens about 9%, jacks about 8%.
  • Turn, main pot: jacks about 90%, kings and queens about 5% each.

Notice what happens to a premium pair in a three-way pot. Kings against jacks alone would have been about 81% before the flop. With queens in the pot too, kings fell to about 67%. The more players who see five cards, the more often someone catches up.

It also explains Weinman's position. Facing an open and a three-bet, a four-bet shove with jacks risks running into exactly the bigger pairs he found. Once both opponents called, he needed help from the deck: about one time in seven before the flop, and about one time in twelve after it. The deck delivered on the turn. Over many repetitions, that spot loses far more often than it wins.

What the losing players did right

  • Payne played kings the standard way. He opened, and when a four-bet shove came behind, calling all in with the second-best starting hand was clearly correct. He got his chips in as the favorite against both opponents.
  • Aguilera's call had a real case too. With queens facing a raise and a shove, he was ahead of jacks and of many hands that shove there, and he had the stack to absorb a loss. The result does not make the decision a mistake.
  • Aguilera regrouped. Left short after losing a huge pot, he kept playing and finished 10th. That is what handling a bad beat looks like in practice.

The lesson

The eventual champion was a big underdog in one of the most important pots of his tournament. That is not a criticism of him; every Main Event winner needs some hands like this to go their way. It is a reminder of how much of a single tournament comes down to variance, and why results over a short stretch say very little about how well anyone is playing.

  • Measure yourself on decisions. Getting kings in against queens and jacks is a winning play, whatever the turn brings.
  • Respect multiway pots. Your big pair is less of a favorite with more players involved, so expect more of these outcomes.
  • Protect your mindset. A beat that costs you a tournament can sting for days. Our tilt guide has practical ways to reset, and a sound bankroll plan keeps a single result from mattering too much.

Sources

Hand details are as reported by the outlets above. Percentages are our own calculations from the cards shown; where suits were not reported, figures are approximate.